Supposethepubliconcefairlybroughttothatcondition，towhichitishasteningwithsuchamazingrapidity;supposethelandtobetaxedeighteenornineteenshillingsinthepound;foritcanneverbearthewholetwenty;supposealltheexcisesandcustomstobescreweduptotheutmostwhichthenationcanbear，withoutentirelylosingitscommerceandindustry;andsupposethatallthosefundsaremortgagedtoperpetuity，andthattheinventionandwitofallourprojectorscanfindnonewimposition，whichmayserveasthefoundationofanewloan;andletusconsiderthenecessaryconsequencesofthissituation。
Thoughtheimperfectstateofourpoliticalknowledge，andthenarrowcapacitiesofmen，makeitdifficulttoforteltheeffectswhichwillresultfromanyuntriedmeasure，theseedsofruinareherescatteredwithsuchprofusionasnottoescapetheeyeofthemostcarelessobserver。
Inthisunnaturalstateofsociety，theonlypersons，whopossessanyrevenuebeyondtheimmediateeffectsoftheirindustry，arethestock—holders，whodrawalmostalltherentofthelandandhouses，besidestheproduceofallthecustomsandexcises。Thesearemen，whohavenoconnexionswiththestate，whocanenjoytheirrevenueinanypartoftheglobeinwhichtheychusetoreside，whowillnaturallyburythemselvesinthecapitaloringreatcities，andwhowillsinkintothelethargyofastupidandpamperedluxury，withoutspirit，ambition，orenjoyment。Adieutoallideasofnobility，gentry，andfamily。
Thestockscanbetransferredinaninstant，andbeinginsuchafluctuatingstate，willseldombetransmittedduringthreegenerationsfromfathertoson。Orweretheytoremaineversolonginonefamily，theyconveynohereditaryauthorityorcredittothepossessor;andbythismeans，theseveralranksofmen，whichformakindofindependentmagistracyinastate，institutedbythehandofnature，areentirelylost;andeverymaninauthorityderiveshisinfluencefromthecommissionaloneofthesovereign。Noexpedientremainsforpreventingorsuppressinginsurrections，butmercenaryarmies:Noexpedientatallremainsforresistingtyranny。Electionsareswayedbybriberyandcorruptionalone:Andthemiddlepowerbetweenkingandpeoplebeingtotallyremoved，agrievousdespotismmustinfalliblyprevail。Thelandholders，despisedfortheirpoverty，andhatedfortheiroppressions，willbeutterlyunabletomakeanyoppositiontoit。
Thougharesolutionshouldbeformedbythelegislaturenevertoimposeanytaxwhichhurtscommerceanddiscouragesindustry，itwillbeimpossibleformen，insubjectsofsuchextremedelicacy，toreasonsojustlyasnevertobemistaken，oramidstdifficultiessourgent，nevertobeseducedfromtheirresolution。Thecontinualfluctuationsincommercerequirecontinualalterationsinthenatureofthetaxes;whichexposesthelegislatureeverymomenttothedangerbothofwilfulandinvoluntaryerror。Andanygreatblowgiventotrade，whetherbyinjudicioustaxesorbyotheraccidents，throwsthewholesystemofgovernmentintoconfusion。
Butwhatexpedientcanthepublicnowemploy，evensupposingtradetocontinueinthemostflourishingcondition，inordertosupportitsforeignwarsandenterprizes，andtodefenditsownhonourandinterests，orthoseofitsallies？Idonotaskhowthepublicistoexertsuchaprodigiouspowerasithasmaintainedduringourlatewars;wherewehavesomuchexceeded，notonlyourownnaturalstrength，buteventhatofthegreatestempires。Thisextravaganceistheabusecomplainedof，asthesourceofallthedangers，towhichweareatpresentexposed。
Butsincewemuststillsupposegreatcommerceandopulencetoremain，evenaftereveryfundismortgaged;theserichesmustbedefendedbyproportionalpower;andwhenceisthepublictoderivetherevenuewhichsupportsit？Itmustplainlybefromacontinualtaxationoftheannuitants，or，whichisthesamething，frommortgaginganew，oneveryexigency，acertainpartoftheirannuities;andthusmakingthemcontributetotheirowndefence，andtothatofthenation。Butthedifficulties，attendingthissystemofpolicy，willeasilyappear，whetherwesupposethekingtohavebecomeabsolutemaster，ortobestillcontrouledbynationalcouncils，inwhichtheannuitantsthemselvesmustnecessarilybeartheprincipalsway。
Iftheprincehasbecomeabsolute，asmaynaturallybeexpectedfromthissituationofaffairs，itissoeasyforhimtoencreasehisexactionsupontheannuitants，whichamountonlytotheretainingmoneyinhisownhands，thatthisspeciesofpropertywouldsoonloseallitscredit，andthewholeincomeofeveryindividualinthestatemustlieentirelyatthemercyofthesovereign:Adegreeofdespotism，whichnoorientalmonarchyhaseveryetattained。If，onthecontrary，theconsentoftheannuitantsberequisiteforeverytaxation，theywillneverbepersuadedtocontributesufficientlyeventothesupportofgovernment;asthediminutionoftheirrevenuemustinthatcasebeverysensible，wouldnotbedisguisedundertheappearanceofabranchofexciseorcustoms，andwouldnotbesharedbyanyotherorderofthestate，whoarealreadysupposedtobetaxedtotheutmost。Thereareinstances，insomerepublics，ofahundredthpenny，andsometimesofthefiftieth，beinggiventothesupportofthestate;butthisisalwaysanextraordinaryexertionofpower，andcanneverbecomethefoundationofaconstantnationaldefence。Wehavealwaysfound，whereagovernmenthasmortgagedallitsrevenues，thatitnecessarilysinksintoastateoflanguor，inactivity，andimpotence。
Sucharetheinconveniencies，whichmayreasonablybeforeseen，ofthissituation，towhichGREATBRITAINisvisiblytending。Nottomention，thenumberlessinconveniencies，whichcannotbeforeseen，andwhichmustresultfromsomonstrousasituationasthatofmakingthepublicthechieforsoleproprietorofland，besidesinvestingitwitheverybranchofcustomsandexcise，whichthefertileimaginationofministersandprojectorshavebeenabletoinvent。
Imustconfess，thatthereisastrangesupineness，fromlongcustom，creepedintoallranksofmen，withregardtopublicdebts，notunlikewhatdivinessovehementlycomplainofwithregardtotheirreligiousdoctrines。Weallown，thatthemostsanguineimaginationcannothope，eitherthatthisoranyfutureministrywillbepossessedofsuchrigidandsteadyfrugality，astomakeaconsiderableprogressinthepaymentofourdebts;orthatthesituationofforeignaffairswill，foranylongtime，allowthemleisureandtranquillityforsuchanundertaking。Whatthenistobecomeofus？WereweeversogoodChristians，andeversoresignedtoProvidence;this，methinks，wereacuriousquestion，evenconsideredasaspeculativeone，andwhatitmightnotbealtogetherimpossibletoformsomeconjecturalsolutionof。Theeventsherewilldependlittleuponthecontingenciesofbattles，negociations，intrigues，andfactions。Thereseemstobeanaturalprogressofthings，whichmayguideourreasoning。Asitwouldhaverequiredbutamoderateshareofprudence，whenwefirstbeganthispracticeofmortgaging，tohaveforetold，fromthenatureofmenandofministers，thatthingswouldnecessarilybecarriedtothelengthwesee;sonow，thattheyhaveatlasthappilyreachedit，itmaynotbedifficulttoguessattheconsequences。Itmust，indeed，beoneofthesetwoevents;eitherthenationmustdestroypubliccredit，orpubliccreditwilldestroythenation。Itisimpossiblethattheycanbothsubsist，afterthemannertheyhavebeenhithertomanaged，inthis，aswellasinsomeothercountries。
Therewas，indeed，aschemeforthepaymentofourdebts，whichwasproposedbyanexcellentcitizen，MrHUTCHINSON，abovethirtyyearsago，andwhichwasmuchapprovedofbysomemenofsense，butneverwaslikelytotakeeffect。Heasserted，thattherewasafallacyinimaginingthatthepublicowedthisdebt;
forthatreallyeveryindividualowedaproportionalshareofit，andpaid，inhistaxes，aproportionalshareoftheinterest，besidetheexpenceoflevyingthesetaxes。Hadwenotbetter，then，sayshe，makeadistributionofthedebtamongourselves，andeachofuscontributeasumsuitabletohisproperty，andbythatmeansdischargeatonceallourfundsandpublicmortgages？
Heseemsnottohaveconsidered，thatthelaboriouspoorpayaconsiderablepartofthetaxesbytheirannualconsumptions，thoughtheycouldnotadvance，atonce，aproportionalpartofthesumrequired。Nottomention，thatpropertyinmoneyandstockintrademighteasilybeconcealedordisguised;andthatvisiblepropertyinlandsandhouseswouldreallyatlastanswerforthewhole:Aninequalityandoppression，whichneverwouldbesubmittedto。Butthoughthisprojectisnotlikelytotakeplace;itisnotaltogetherimprobable，that，whenthenationbecomesheartilysickoftheirdebts，andiscruellyoppressedbythem，somedaringprojectormayarisewithvisionaryschemesfortheirdischarge。Andaspubliccreditwillbegin，bythattime，tobealittlefrail，theleasttouchwilldestroyit，ashappenedinFRANCEduringtheregency。andinthismanneritwilldieofthedoctor。
Butitismoreprobable，thatthebreachofnationalfaithwillbethenecessaryeffectofwars，defeats，misfortunes，andpubliccalamities，orevenperhapsofvictoriesandconquests。I
mustconfess，whenIseeprincesandstatesfightingandquarrelling，amidsttheirdebts，funds，andpublicmortgages，italwaysbringstomymindamatchofcudgel—playingfoughtinaChinashop。Howcanitbeexpected，thatsovereignswillspareaspeciesofproperty，whichispernicioustothemselvesandtothepublic，whentheyhavesolittlecompassiononlivesandproperties，thatareusefultoboth？Letthetimecome（andsurelyitwillcome）whenthenewfunds，createdfortheexigenciesoftheyear，arenotsubscribedto，andraisenotthemoneyprojected。Suppose，eitherthatthecashofthenationisexhausted;orthatourfaith，whichhashithertobeensoample，beginstofailus。Suppose，that，inthisdistress，thenationisthreatenedwithaninvasion;arebellionissuspectedorbrokenoutathome;asquadroncannotbeequippedforwantofpay，victuals，orrepairs;orevenaforeignsubsidycannotbeadvanced。Whatmustaprinceorministerdoinsuchanemergence？
Therightofself—preservationisunalienableineveryindividual，muchmoreineverycommunity。Andthefollyofourstatesmenmustthenbegreaterthanthefollyofthosewhofirstcontracteddebt，or，whatismore，thanthatofthosewhotrusted，orcontinuetotrustthissecurity，ifthesestatesmenhavethemeansofsafetyintheirhands，anddonotemploythem。
Thefunds，createdandmortgaged，will，bythattime，bringinalargeyearlyrevenue，sufficientforthedefenceandsecurityofthenation:Moneyisperhapslyingintheexchequer，readyforthedischargeofthequarterlyinterest:Necessitycalls，fearurges，reasonexhorts，compassionaloneexclaims:Themoneywillimmediatelybeseizedforthecurrentservice，underthemostsolemnprotestations，perhaps，ofbeingimmediatelyreplaced。Butnomoreisrequisite。Thewholefabric，alreadytottering，fallstotheground，andburiesthousandsinitsruins。Andthis，I
think，maybecalledthenaturaldeathofpubliccredit:Fortothisperiodittendsasnaturallyasananimalbodytoitsdissolutionanddestruction。
Sogreatdupesarethegeneralityofmankind，that，notwithstandingsuchaviolentshocktopubliccredit，asavoluntarybankruptcyinENGLANDwouldoccasion，itwouldnotprobablybelongerecreditwouldagainreviveinasflourishingaconditionasbefore。ThepresentkingofFRANCE，duringthelatewar，borrowedmoneyatlowerinterestthaneverhisgrandfatherdid;andaslowastheBRITISHparliament，comparingthenaturalrateofinterestinbothkingdoms。Andthoughmenarecommonlymoregovernedbywhattheyhaveseen，thanbywhattheyforesee，withwhatevercertainty;yetpromises，protestations，fairappearances，withtheallurementsofpresentinterest，havesuchpowerfulinfluenceasfewareabletoresist。Mankindare，inallages，caughtbythesamebaits:Thesametricks，playedoverandoveragain，stilltrepanthem。Theheightsofpopularityandpatriotismarestillthebeatenroadtopowerandtyranny;
flatterytotreachery;standingarmiestoarbitrarygovernment;
andthegloryofGodtothetemporalinterestoftheclergy。Thefearofaneverlastingdestructionofcredit，allowingittobeanevil，isaneedlessbugbear。Aprudentman，inreality，wouldratherlendtothepublicimmediatelyafterwehadtakenaspungetoourdebts，thanatpresent;asmuchasanopulentknave，eventhoughonecouldnotforcehimtopay，isapreferabledebtortoanhonestbankrupt:Fortheformer，inordertocarryonbusiness，mayfindithisinteresttodischargehisdebts，wheretheyarenotexorbitant:Thelatterhasitnotinhispower。ThereasoningofTACITUS，asitiseternallytrue，isveryapplicabletoourpresentcase。Sedvulgusadmagnitudinembeneficiorumaderat:Stultissimusquisquepecuniismercabatur:Apudsapientescassahabebantur，quoenequedarinequeaccipi，salvarepublica，Poterant。Thepublicisadebtor，whomnomancanobligetopay。
Theonlycheckwhichthecreditorshaveuponher，istheinterestofpreservingcredit;aninterest，whichmayeasilybeoverbalancedbyagreatdebt，andbyadifficultandextraordinaryemergence，evensupposingthatcreditirrecoverable。Nottomention，thatapresentnecessityoftenforcesstatesintomeasures，whichare，strictlyspeaking，againsttheirinterest。
Thesetwoevents，supposedabove，arecalamitous，butnotthemostcalamitous。Thousandsaretherebysacrificedtothesafetyofmillions。Butwearenotwithoutdanger，thatthecontraryeventmaytakeplace，andthatmillionsmaybesacrificedforevertothetemporarysafetyofthousands。Ourpopulargovernment，perhaps，willrenderitdifficultordangerousforaministertoventureonsodesperateanexpedient，asthatofavoluntarybankruptcy。AndthoughthehouseofLordsbealtogethercomposedofproprietorsofland，andthehouseofCommonschiefly;andconsequentlyneitherofthemcanbesupposedtohavegreatpropertyinthefunds。Yettheconnectionsofthemembersmaybesogreatwiththeproprietors，astorenderthemmoretenaciousofpublicfaith，thanprudence，policy，orevenjustice，strictlyspeaking，requires。Andperhapstoo，ourforeignenemiesmaybesopoliticastodiscover，thatoursafetyliesindespair，andmaynot，therefore，showthedanger，openandbarefaced，tillitbeinevitable。ThebalanceofpowerinEUROPE，ourgrandfathers，ourfathers，andwe，havealldeemedtoounequaltobepreservedwithoutourattentionandassistance。
Butourchildren，wearyofthestruggle，andfetteredwithincumbrances，maysitdownsecure，andseetheirneighboursoppressedandconquered;till，atlast，theythemselvesandtheircreditorsliebothatthemercyoftheconqueror。Andthismayproperlyenoughbedenominatedtheviolentdeathofourpubliccredit。
Theseseemtobetheevents，whicharenotveryremote，andwhichreasonforeseesasclearlyalmostasshecandoanythingthatliesinthewomboftime。Andthoughtheancientsmaintained，thatinordertoreachthegiftofprophecy，acertaindivinefuryormadnesswasrequisite，onemaysafelyaffirm，that，inordertodeliversuchpropheciesasthese，nomoreisnecessary，thanmerelytobeinone’ssenses，freefromtheinfluenceofpopularmadnessanddelusion。