Theaverageproportionofbirthstoburialsinanycountryforaperiodoffivetotenyears，willhenceappeartobeaveryinadequatecriterionbywhichtojudgeofitsrealprogressinpopulation。Thisproportioncertainlyshewstherateofincreaseduringthosefiveortenyears;butwecanbynomeansthenceinferwhathadbeentheincreaseforthetwentyyearsbefore，orwhatwouldbetheincreaseforthetwentyyearsafter。DrPriceobservesthatSweden，Norway，Russia，andthekingdomofNaples，areincreasingfast;buttheextractsfromregistersthathehasgivenarenotforperiodsofsufficientextenttoestablishthefact。Itishighlyprobable，however，thatSweden，Norway，andRussia，arereallyincreasingtheirpopulation，thoughnotattheratethattheproportionofbirthstoburialsfortheshortperiodsthatDrPricetakeswouldseemtoshew。（SeeDrPrice’sObservations，Vol。ii，postscripttothecontroversyonthepopulationofEnglandandWales。）Forfiveyears，endingin1777，theproportionofbirthstoburialsinthekingdomofNapleswas144to1OO，butthereisreasontosupposethatthisproportionwouldindicateanincreasemuchgreaterthanwouldbereallyfoundtohavetakenplaceinthatkingdomduringaperiodofahundredyears。
DrShortcomparedtheregistersofmanyvillagesandmarkettownsinEnglandfortwoperiods;thefirst，fromQueenElizabethtothemiddleofthelastcentury，andthesecond，fromdifferentyearsattheendofthelastcenturytothemiddleofthepresent。Andfromacomparisonoftheseextracts，itappearsthatintheformerperiodthebirthsexceededtheburialsintheproportionof124to100，butinthelatter，onlyintheproportionof111to100。DrPricethinksthattheregistersintheformerperiodarenottobedependedupon，but，probably，inthisinstancetheydonotgiveincorrectproportions。Atleasttherearemanyreasonsforexpectingtofindagreaterexcessofbirthsabovetheburialsintheformerperiodthaninthelatter。
Inthenaturalprogressofthepopulationofanycountry，moregoodlandwill，caeterisparibus，betakenintocultivationintheearlierstagesofitthaninthelater。（Isay’caeterisparibus’，becausetheincreaseoftheproduceofanycountrywillalwaysverygreatlydependonthespiritofindustrythatprevails，andthewayinwhichitisdirected。Theknowledgeandhabitsofthepeople，andothertemporarycauses，particularlythedegreeofcivillibertyandequalityexistingatthetime，mustalwayshavegreatinfluenceinexcitinganddirectingthisspirit。）Andagreaterproportionalyearlyincreaseofproducewillalmostinvariablybefollowedbyagreaterproportionalincreaseofpopulation。But，besidesthisgreatcause，whichwouldnaturallygivetheexcessofbirthsaboveburialsgreaterattheendofQueenElizabeth’sreignthaninthemiddleofthepresentcentury，Icannothelpthinkingthattheoccasionalravagesoftheplagueintheformerperiodmusthavehadsometendencytoincreasethisproportion。Ifanaverageoftenyearshadbeentakenintheintervalsofthereturnsofthisdreadfuldisorder，oriftheyearsofplaguehadbeenrejectedasaccidental，theregisterswouldcertainlygivetheproportionofbirthstoburialstoohighfortherealaverageincreaseofthepopulation。Forsomefewyearsafterthegreatplaguein1666，itispRobablethattherewasamorethanusualexcessofbirthsaboveburials，particularlyifDrPrice’sopinionbefounded，thatEnglandwasmorepopulousattherevolution（whichhappenedonlytwenty—twoyearsafterwards）thanitisatpresent。
MrKing，in1693，statedtheproportionofthebirthstotheburialsthroughouttheKingdom，exclusiveofLondon，as115to100。DrShortmakesit，inthemiddleofthepresentcentury，111
to100，includingLondon。TheproportioninFranceforfiveyears，endingin1774，was117to100。Ifthesestatementsarenearthetruth;andiftherearenoverygreatvariationsatparticularperiodsintheproportions，itwouldappearthatthepopulationofFranceandEnglandhasaccommodateditselfverynearlytotheaverageproduceofeachcountry。Thediscouragementstomarriage，theconsequentvicioushabits，war，luxury，thesilentthoughcertaindepopulationoflargetowns，andtheclosehabitations，andinsufficientfoodofmanyofthepoor，preventpopulationfromincreasingbeyondthemeansofsubsistence;and，ifImayuseanexpressionwhichcertainlyatfirstappearsstrange，supercedethenecessityofgreatandravagingepidemicstorepresswhatisredundant。WereawastingplaguetosweepofftwomillionsinEngland，andsixmillionsinFrance，therecanbenodoubtwhateverthat，aftertheinhabitantshadrecoveredfromthedreadfulshock，theproportionofbirthstoburialswouldbemuchabovewhatitisineithercountryatpresent。
InNewJersey，theproportionofbirthstodeathsonanaverageofsevenyears，endingin1743，wasas300to100。InFranceandEngland，takingthehighestproportion，itisas117
to100。Greatandastonishingasthisdifferenceis，weoughtnottobesowonder—struckatitastoattributeittothemiraculousinterpositionofheaven。Thecausesofitarenotremote，latentandmysterious;butnearus，roundaboutus，andopentotheinvestigationofeveryinquiringmind。Itaccordswiththemostliberalspiritofphilosophytosupposethatnotastonecanfall，oraplantrise，withouttheimmediateagencyofdivinepower。Butweknowfromexperiencethattheseoperationsofwhatwecallnaturehavebeenconductedalmostinvariablyaccordingtofixedlaws。Andsincetheworldbegan，thecausesofpopulationanddepopulationhaveprobablybeenasconstantasanyofthelawsofnaturewithwhichweareacquainted。
Thepassionbetweenthesexeshasappearedineveryagetobesonearlythesamethatitmayalwaysbeconsidered，inalgebraiclanguage，asagivenquantity。Thegreatlawofnecessitywhichpreventspopulationfromincreasinginanycountrybeyondthefoodwhichitcaneitherproduceoracquire，isalawsoopentoourview，soobviousandevidenttoourunderstandings，andsocompletelyconfirmedbytheexperienceofeveryage，thatwecannotforamomentdoubtit。Thedifferentmodeswhichnaturetakestopreventorrepressaredundantpopulationdonotappear，indeed，toussocertainandregular，butthoughwecannotalwayspredictthemodewemaywithcertaintypredictthefact。Iftheproportionofbirthstodeathsforafewyearsindicateanincreaseofnumbersmuchbeyondtheproportionalincreasedoracquiredproduceofthecountry，wemaybeperfectlycertainthatunlessanemigrationtakesplace，thedeathswillshortlyexceedthebirths;andthattheincreasethathadtakenplaceforafewyearscannotbetherealaverageincreaseofthepopulationofthecountry。Weretherenootherdepopulatingcauses，everycountrywould，withoutdoubt，besubjecttoperiodicalpestilencesorfamine。
Theonlytruecriterionofarealandpermanentincreaseinthepopulationofanycountryistheincreaseofthemeansofsubsistence。Buteven，thiscriterionissubjecttosomeslightvariationswhichare，however，completelyopentoourviewandobservations。Insomecountriespopulationappearstohavebeenforced，thatis，thepeoplehavebeenhabituatedbydegreestolivealmostuponthesmallestpossiblequantityoffood。Theremusthavebeenperiodsinsuchcountieswhenpopulationincreasedpermanently，withoutanincreaseinthemeansofsubsistence。
Chinaseemstoanswertothisdescription。Iftheaccountswehaveofitaretobetrusted，thelowerclassesofpeopleareinthehabitoflivingalmostuponthesmallestpossiblequantityoffoodandaregladtogetanyputridoffalsthatEuropeanlabourerswouldratherstarvethaneat。ThelawinChinawhichpermitsparentstoexposetheirchildrenhastendedprincipallythustoforcethepopulation。Anationinthisstatemustnecessarilybesubjecttofamines。Whereacountryissopopulousinproportiontothemeansofsubsistencethattheaverageproduceofitisbutbarelysufficienttosupportthelivesoftheinhabitants，anydeficiencyfromthebadnessofseasonsmustbefatal。ItisprobablethattheveryfrugalmannerinwhichtheGentoosareinthehabitoflivingcontributesinsomedegreetothefaminesofindostan。
InAmerica，wheretherewardoflabourisatpresentsoliberal，thelowerclassesmightretrenchveryconsiderablyinayearofscarcitywithoutmateriallydistressingthemselves。A
faminethereforeseemstobealmostimpossible。ItmaybeexpectedthatintheprogressofthepopulationofAmerica，thelabourerswillintimebemuchlessliberallyrewarded。Thenumberswillinthiscasepermanentlyincreasewithoutaproportionalincreaseinthemeansofsubsistence。
InthedifferentstatesofEuropetheremustbesomevariationsintheproportionbetweenthenumberofinhabitantsandthequantityoffoodconsumed，arisingfromthedifferenthabitsoflivingthatprevailineachstate。ThelabourersoftheSouthofEnglandaresoaccustomedtoeatfinewheatenbreadthattheywillsufferthemselvestobehalfstarvedbeforetheywillsubmittoliveliketheScotchpeasants。Theymightperhapsintime，bytheconstantoperationofthehardlawofnecessity，bereducedtoliveevenliketheLowerChinese，andthecountrywouldthen，withthesamequantityoffood，supportagreaterpopulation。Buttoeffectthismustalwaysbeamostdifficult，and，everyfriendtohumanitywillhope，anabortiveattempt。
Nothingissocommonastohearofencouragementsthatoughttobegiventopopulation。IfthetendencyofmankindtoincreasebesogreatasIhaverepresentedittobe，itmayappearstrangethatthisincreasedoesnotcomewhenitisthusrepeatedlycalledfor。Thetruereasonisthatthedemandforagreaterpopulationismadewithoutpreparingthefundsnecessarytosupportit。Increasethedemandforagriculturallabourbypromotingcultivation，andwithitconsequentlyincreasetheproduceofthecountry，andamelioratetheconditionofthelabourer，andnoapprehensionswhateverneedbeentertainedoftheproportionalincreaseofpopulation。Anattempttoeffectthispurposeinanyotherwayisvicious，cruel，andtyrannical，andinanystateoftolerablefreedomcannotthereforesucceed。
Itmayappeartobetheinterestoftherulers，andtherichofastate，toforcepopulation，andtherebylowerthepriceoflabour，andconsequentlytheexpenseoffleetsandarmies，andthecostofmanufacturesforforeignsale;buteveryattemptofthekindshouldbecarefullywatchedandstrenuouslyresistedbythefriendsofthepoor，particularlywhenitcomesunderthedeceitfulgarbofbenevolence，andislikely，onthataccount，tobecheerfullyandcordiallyreceivedbythecommonpeople。
IentirelyacquitMrPittofanysinisterintentioninthatclauseofhisPoorBillwhichallowsashillingaweektoeverylabourerforeachchildhehasabovethree。Iconfess，thatbeforethebillwasbroughtintoParliament，andforsometimeafter，Ithoughtthatsucharegulationwouldbehighlybeneficial，butfurtherreflectiononthesubjecthasconvincedmethatifitsobjectbetobettertheconditionofthepoor，itiscalculatedtodefeattheverypurposewhichithasinview。IthasnotendencythatIcandiscovertoincreasetheproduceofthecountry，andif。Ittendtoincreasethepopulation，withoutincreasingtheproduce，thenecessaryandinevitableconsequenceappearstobethatthesameproducemustbedividedamongagreaternumber，andconsequentlythataday’slabourwillpurchaseasmallerquantityofprovisions，andthepoorthereforeingeneralmustbemoredistressed。
Ihavementionedsomecaseswherepopulationmaypermanentlyincreasewithoutaproportionalincreaseinthemeansofsubsistence。Butitisevidentthatthevariationindifferentstates，betweenthefoodandthenumberssupportedbyit，isrestrictedtoalimitbeyondwhichitcannotpass。Ineverycountry，thepopulationofwhichisnotabsolutelydecreasing，thefoodmustbenecessarilysufficienttosupport，andtocontinue，theraceoflabourers。
Othercircumstancesbeingthesame，itmaybeaffirmedthatcountriesarepopulousaccordingtothequantityofhumanfoodwhichtheyproduce，andhappyaccordingtotheliberalitywithwhichthatfoodisdivided，orthequantitywhichaday’slabourwillpurchase。Corncountriesaremorepopulousthanpasturecountries，andricecountriesmorepopulousthancorncountries。
ThelandsinEnglandarenotsuitedtorice，buttheywouldallbearpotatoes;andDrAdamSmithobservesthatifpotatoesweretobecomethefavouritevegetablefoodofthecommonpeople，andifthesamequantityoflandwasemployedintheircultureasisnowemployedinthecultureofcorn，thecountrywouldbeabletosupportamuchgreaterpopulation，andwouldconsequentlyinaveryshorttimehaveit。
Thehappinessofacountrydoesnotdepend，absolutely，uponitspovertyoritsriches，uponitsyouthoritsage，uponitsbeingthinlyorfullyinhabited，butupontherapiditywithwhichitisincreasing，uponthedegreeinwhichtheyearlyincreaseoffoodapproachestotheyearlyincreaseofanunrestrictedpopulation。Thisapproximationisalwaysthenearestinnewcolonies，wheretheknowledgeandindustryofanoldstateoperateonthefertileunappropriatedlandofanewone。Inothercases，theyouthortheageofastateisnotinthisrespectofverygreatimportance。ItisprobablethatthefoodofGreatBritainisdividedinasgreatplentytotheinhabitants，atthepresentperiod，asitwastwothousand，threethousand，orfourthousandyearsago。AndthereisreasontobelievethatthepoorandthinlyinhabitedtractsoftheScotchHighlandsareasmuchdistressedbyanoverchargedpopulationastherichandpopulousprovinceofFlanders。
Wereacountrynevertobeoverrunbyapeoplemoreadvancedinarts，butlefttoitsownnaturalprogressincivilization;
fromthetimethatitsproducemightbeconsideredasanunit，tothetimethatitmightbeconsideredasamillion，duringthelapseofmanyhundredyears，therewouldnotbeasingleperiodwhenthemassofthepeoplecouldbesaidtobefreefromdistress，eitherdirectlyorindirectly，forwantoffood。IneverystateinEurope，sincewehavefirsthadaccountsofit，millionsandmillionsofhumanexistenceshavebeenrepressedfromthissimplecause;thoughperhapsinsomeofthesestatesanabsolutefaminehasneverbeenknown。
Famineseemstobethelast，themostdreadfulresourceofnature。Thepowerofpopulationissosuperiortothepowerintheearthtoproducesubsistenceforman，thatprematuredeathmustinsomeshapeorothervisitthehumanrace。Thevicesofmankindareactiveandableministersofdepopulation。Theyaretheprecursorsinthegreatarmyofdestruction;andoftenfinishthedreadfulworkthemselves。Butshouldtheyfailinthiswarofextermination，sicklyseasons，epidemics，pestilence，andplague，advanceinterrificarray，andsweepofftheirthousandsandtenthousands。Shouldsuccessbestillincomplete，giganticinevitablefaminestalksintherear，andwithonemightyblowlevelsthepopulationwiththefoodoftheworld。
Mustitnotthenbeacknowledgedbyanattentiveexaminerofthehistoriesofmankind，thatineveryageandineverystateinwhichmanhasexisted，ordoesnowexist。
Thattheincreaseofpopulationisnecessarilylimitedbythemeansofsubsistence。
Thatpopulationdoesinvariablyincreasewhenthemeansofsubsistenceincrease。Andthatthesuperiorpowerofpopulation。itrepressed，andtheactualpopulationkeptequaltothemeansofsubsistence，bymiseryandvice？
CHAPTER8
MrWallace—Errorofsupposingthatthedifficultyarisingfrompopulationisatagreatdistance—MrCondorcet’ssketchoftheprogressofthehumanmind—Periodwhentheoscillation，mentionedbyMrCondorcet，oughttobeappliedtothehumanrace。
Toapersonwhodrawstheprecedingobviousinferences，fromaviewofthepastandpresentstateofmankind，itcannotbutbeamatterofastonishmentthatallthewritersontheperfectibilityofmanandofsocietywhohavenoticedtheargumentofanoverchargedpopulation，treatitalwaysveryslightlyandinvariablyrepresentthedifficultiesarisingfromitasatagreatandalmostimmeasurabledistance。EvenMrWallace，whothoughttheargumentitselfofsomuchweightastodestroyhiswholesystemofequality，didnotseemtobeawarethatanydifficultywouldoccurfromthiscausetillthewholeearthhadbeencultivatedlikeagardenandwasincapableofanyfurtherincreaseofproduce。Werethisreallythecase，andwereabeautifulsystemofequalityinotherrespectspracticable，I
cannotthinkthatourardourinthepursuitofsuchaschemeoughttobedampedbythecontemplationofsoremoteadifficulty。Aneventatsuchadistancemightfairlybelefttoprovidence，butthetruthisthatiftheviewoftheargumentgiveninthisEssaybejustthedifficulty，sofarfrombeingremote，wouldbeimminentandimmediate。Ateveryperiodduringtheprogressofcultivation，fromthepresentmomenttothetimewhenthewholeearthwasbecomelikeagarden，thedistressforwantoffoodwouldbeconstantlypressingonallmankind，iftheywereequal。Thoughtheproduceoftheearthmightbeincreasingeveryyear，populationwouldbeincreasingmuchfaster，andtheredundancymustnecessarilyberepressedbytheperiodicalorconstantactionofmiseryorvice。
MrCondorcet’sEsquissed’unTableauHistoriquedesProgresdel’EspritHumain，waswritten，itissaid，underthepressureofthatcruelproscriptionwhichterminatedinhisdeath。IfhehadnohopesofitsbeingseenduringhislifeandofitsinterestingFranceinhisfavour，itisasingularinstanceoftheattachmentofamantoprinciples，whicheveryday’sexperiencewassofatallyforhimselfcontradicting。Toseethehumanmindinoneofthemostenlightenednationsoftheworld，andafteralapseofsomethousandyears，debasedbysuchafermentationofdisgustingpassions，offear，cruelty，malice，revenge，ambition，madness，andfollyaswouldhavedisgracedthemostsavagenationinthemostbarbarousagemusthavebeensuchatremendousshocktohisideasofthenecessaryandinevitableprogressofthehumanmindthatnothingbutthefirmestconvictionofthetruthofhisprinciples，inspiteofallappearances，couldhavewithstood。
Thisposthumouspublicationisonlyasketchofamuchlargerwork，whichheproposedshouldbeexecuted。Itnecessarily，therefore，wantsthatdetailandapplicationwhichcanaloneprovethetruthofanytheory。Afewobservationswillbesufficienttoshewhowcompletelythetheoryiscontradictedwhenitisappliedtothereal，andnottoanimaginary，stateofthings。
Inthelastdivisionofthework，whichtreatsofthefutureprogressofmantowardsperfection，hesays，thatcomparing，inthedifferentcivilizednationsofEurope，theactualpopulationwiththeextentofterritory，andobservingtheircultivation，theirindustry，theirdivisionsoflabour，andtheirmeansofsubsistence，weshallseethatitwouldbeimpossibletopreservethesamemeansofsubsistence，and，consequently，thesamepopulation，withoutanumberofindividualswhohavenoothermeansofsupplyingtheirwantsthantheirindustry。Havingallowedthenecessityofsuchaclassofmen，andadvertingafterwardstotheprecariousrevenueofthosefamiliesthatwoulddependsoentirelyonthelifeandhealthoftheirchief，hesays，veryjustly：’Thereexiststhen，anecessarycauseofinequality，ofdependence，andevenofmisery，whichmenaces，withoutceasing，themostnumerousandactiveclassofoursocieties。’（Tosavetimeandlongquotations，IshallheregivethesubstanceofsomeofMrCondorcet’ssentiments，andhopeI
shallnotmisrepresentthem。ButIreferthereadertotheworkitself，whichwillamuse，ifitdoesnotconvincehim。）Thedifficultyisjustandwellstated，andIamafraidthatthemodebywhichheproposesitshouldberemovedwillbefoundinefficacious。Bytheapplicationofcalculationstotheprobabilitiesoflifeandtheinterestofmoney，heproposesthatafundshouldbeestablishedwhichshouldassuretotheoldanassistance，produced，inpart，bytheirownformersavings，and，inpart，bythesavingsofindividualswhoinmakingthesamesacrificediebeforetheyreapthebenefitofit。Thesame，orasimilarfund，shouldgiveassistancetowomenandchildrenwholosetheirhusbands，orfathers，andaffordacapitaltothosewhowereofanagetofoundanewfamily，sufficientfortheproperdevelopmentoftheirindustry。Theseestablishments，heobserves，mightbemadeinthenameandundertheprotectionofthesociety。Goingstillfurther，hesaysthat，bythejustapplicationofcalculations，meansmightbefoundofmorecompletelypreservingastateofequality，bypreventingcreditfrombeingtheexclusiveprivilegeofgreatfortunes，andyetgivingitabasisequallysolid，andbyrenderingtheprogressofindustry，andtheactivityofcommerce，lessdependentongreatcapitalists。
Suchestablishmentsandcalculationsmayappearverypromisinguponpaper，butwhenappliedtoreallifetheywillbefoundtobeabsolutelynugatory。MrCondorcetallowsthataclassofpeoplewhichmaintainsitselfentirelybyindustryisnecessarytoeverystate。Whydoesheallowthis？Nootherreasoncanwellbeassignedthanthatheconceivesthatthelabournecessarytoprocuresubsistenceforanextendedpopulationwillnotbeperformedwithoutthegoadofnecessity。Ifbyestablishmentsofthiskindofspurtoindustryberemoved，iftheidleandthenegligentareplaceduponthesamefootingwithregardtotheircredit，andthefuturesupportoftheirwivesandfamilies，astheactiveandindustrious，canweexpecttoseemenexertthatanimatedactivityinbetteringtheirconditionwhichnowformsthemasterspringofpublicprosperity？Ifaninquisitionweretobeestablishedtoexaminetheclaimsofeachindividualandtodeterminewhetherhehadorhadnotexertedhimselftotheutmost，andtograntorrefuseassistanceaccordingly，thiswouldbelittleelsethanarepetitionuponalargerscaleoftheEnglishpoorlawsandwouldbecompletelydestructiveofthetrueprinciplesoflibertyandequality。
Butindependentofthisgreatobjectiontotheseestablishments，andsupposingforamomentthattheywouldgivenochecktoproductiveindustry，byfarthegreatestdifficultyremainsyetbehind。
Wereeverymansureofacomfortableprovisionforhisfamily，almosteverymanwouldhaveone，andweretherisinggenerationfreefromthe’killingfrost’ofmisery，populationmustrapidlyincrease。OfthisMrCondorcetseemstobefullyawarehimself，andafterhavingdescribedfurtherimprovements，hesays：
Butinthisprocessofindustryandhappiness，eachgenerationwillbecalledtomoreextendedenjoyments，andinconsequence，bythephysicalconstitutionofthehumanframe，toanincreaseinthenumberofindividuals。Mustnottherearriveaperiodthen，whentheselaws，equallynecessary，shallcounteracteachother？Whentheincreaseofthenumberofmensurpassingtheirmeansofsubsistence，thenecessaryresultmustbeeitheracontinualdiminutionofhappinessandpopulation，amovementtrulyretrograde，or，atleast，akindofoscillationbetweengoodandevil？Insocietiesarrivedatthisterm，willnotthisoscillationbeaconstantlysubsistingcauseofperiodicalmisery？Willitnotmarkthelimitwhenallfurtherameliorationwillbecomeimpossible，andpointoutthattermtotheperfectibilityofthehumanracewhichitmayreachinthecourseofages，butcanneverpass？
Hethenadds，Thereisnopersonwhodoesnotseehowverydistantsuchaperiodisfromus，butshallweeverarriveatit？Itisequallyimpossibletopronouncefororagainstthefuturerealizationofaneventwhichcannottakeplacebutatanerawhenthehumanracewillhaveattainedimprovements，ofwhichwecanatpresentscarcelyformaconception。
MrCondorcet’spictureofwhatmaybeexpectedtohappenwhenthenumberofmenshallsurpassthemeansoftheirsubsistenceisjustlydrawn。Theoscillationwhichhedescribeswillcertainlytakeplaceandwillwithoutdoubtbeaconstantlysubsistingcauseofperiodicalmisery。TheonlypointinwhichIdifferfromMrCondorcetwithregardtothispictureistheperiodwhenitmaybeappliedtothehumanrace。MrCondorcetthinksthatitcannotpossiblybeapplicablebutataneraextremelydistant。IftheproportionbetweenthenaturalincreaseofpopulationandfoodwhichIhavegivenbeinanydegreenearthetruth，itwillappear，onthecontrary，thattheperiodwhenthenumberofmensurpasstheirmeansofsubsistencehaslongsincearrived，andthatthisnecessityoscillation，thisconstantlysubsistingcauseofperiodicalmisery，hasexistedeversincewehavehadanyhistoriesofmankind，doesexistatpresent，andwillforevercontinuetoexist，unlesssomedecidedchangetakeplaceinthephysicalconstitutionofournature。
MrCondorcet，however，goesontosaythatshouldtheperiod，whichheconceivestobesodistant，everarrive，thehumanrace，andtheadvocatesfortheperfectibilityofman，neednotbealarmedatit。HethenproceedstoremovethedifficultyinamannerwhichIprofessnottounderstand。Havingobserved，thattheridiculousprejudicesofsuperstitionwouldbythattimehaveceasedtothrowovermoralsacorruptanddegradingausterity，healludes，eithertoapromiscuousconcubinage，whichwouldpreventbreeding，ortosomethingelseasunnatural。Toremovethedifficultyinthiswaywill，surely，intheopinionofmostmen，betodestroythatvirtueandpurityofmanners，whichtheadvocatesofequality，andoftheperfectibilityofman，professtobetheendandobjectoftheirviews。
CHAPTER9
MrCondorcet’sconjectureconcerningtheorganicperfectibilityofman，andtheindefiniteprolongationofhumanlife—Fallacyoftheargument，whichinfersanunlimitedprogressfromapartialimprovement，thelimitofwhichcannotbeascertained，illustratedinthebreedingofanimals，andthecultivationofplants。
THElastquestionwhichMrCondorcetproposesforexaminationistheorganicperfectibilityofman。Heobservesthatiftheproofswhichhavebeenalreadygivenandwhich，intheirdevelopmentwillreceivegreaterforceintheworkitself，aresufficienttoestablishtheindefiniteperfectibilityofmanuponthesuppositionofthesamenaturalfacultiesandthesameorganizationwhichhehasatpresent，whatwillbethecertainty，whattheextentofourhope，ifthisorganization，thesenaturalfacultiesthemselves，aresusceptibleofamelioration？
Fromtheimprovementofmedicine，fromtheuseofmorewholesomefoodandhabitations，fromamanneroflivingwhichwillimprovethestrengthofthebodybyexercisewithoutimpairingitbyexcess，fromthedestructionofthetwogreatcausesofthedegradationofman，misery，andtoogreatriches，fromthegradualremovaloftransmissibleandcontagiousdisordersbytheimprovementofphysicalknowledge，renderedmoreefficaciousbytheprogressofreasonandofsocialorder，heinfersthatthoughmanwillnotabsolutelybecomeimmortal，yetthatthedurationbetweenhisbirthandnaturaldeathwillincreasewithoutceasing，willhavenoassignableterm，andmayproperlybeexpressedbytheword’indefinite’。Hethendefinesthiswordtomeaneitheraconstantapproachtoanunlimitedextent，withouteverreachingit，oranincrease。Intheimmensityofagestoanextentgreaterthananyassignablequantity。
Butsurelytheapplicationofthistermineitherofthesesensestothedurationofhumanlifeisinthehighestdegreeunphilosophicalandtotallyunwarrantedbyanyappearancesinthelawsofnature。Variationsfromdifferentcausesareessentiallydistinctfromaregularandunretrogradeincrease。Theaveragedurationofhumanlifewilltoacertaindegreevaryfromhealthyorunhealthyclimates，fromwholesomeorunwholesomefood，fromvirtuousorviciousmanners，andothercauses，butitmaybefairlydoubtedwhetherthereisreallythesmallestperceptibleadvanceinthenaturaldurationofhumanlifesincefirstwehavehadanyauthentichistoryofman。Theprejudicesofallageshaveindeedbeendirectlycontrarytothissupposition，andthoughI
wouldnotlaymuchstressupontheseprejudices，theywillinsomemeasuretendtoprovethattherehasbeennomarkedadvanceinanoppositedirection。
Itmayperhapsbesaidthattheworldisyetsoyoung，socompletelyinitsinfancy，thatitoughtnottobeexpectedthatanydifferenceshouldappearsosoon。
Ifthisbethecase，thereisatonceanendofallhumanscience。Thewholetrainofreasoningsfromeffectstocauseswillbedestroyed。Wemayshutoureyestothebookofnature，asitwillnolongerbeofanyusetoreadit。Thewildestandmostimprobableconjecturesmaybeadvancedwithasmuchcertaintyasthemostjustandsublimetheories，foundedoncarefulandreiteratedexperiments。Wemayreturnagaintotheoldmodeofphilosophisingandmakefactsbendtosystems，insteadofestablishingsystemsuponfacts。ThegrandandconsistenttheoryofNewtonwillbeplaceduponthesamefootingasthewildandeccentrichypothesesofDescartes。Inshort，ifthelawsofnaturearethusfickleandinconstant，ifitcanbeaffirmedandbebelievedthattheywillchange，whenforagesandagestheyhaveappearedimmutable，thehumanmindwillnolongerhaveanyincitementstoinquiry，butmustremainfixedininactivetorpor，oramuseitselfonlyinbewilderingdreamsandextravagantfancies。
Theconstancyofthelawsofnatureandofeffectsandcausesisthefoundationofallhumanknowledge，thoughfarbeitfrommetosaythatthesamepowerwhichframedandexecutesthelawsofnaturemaynotchangethemall’inamoment，inthetwinklingofaneye。’Suchachangemayundoubtedlyhappen。AllthatI
meantosayisthatitisimpossibletoinferitfromreasoning。
Ifwithoutanypreviousobservablesymptomsorindicationsofachange，wecaninferthatachangewilltakeplace，wemayaswellmakeanyassertionwhateverandthinkitasunreasonabletobecontradictedinaffirmingthatthemoonwillcomeincontactwiththeearthtomorrow，asinsayingthatthesunwillriseatitsusualtime。
Withregardtothedurationofhumanlife，theredoesnotappeartohaveexistedfromtheearliestagesoftheworldtothepresentmomentthesmallestpermanentsymptomorindicationofincreasingprolongation。Theobservableeffectsofclimate，habit，diet，andothercauses，onlengthoflifehavefurnishedthepretextforassertingitsindefiniteextension;andthesandyfoundationonwhichtheargumentrestsisthatbecausethelimitofhumanlifeisundefined;becauseyoucannotmarkitspreciseterm，andsaysofarexactlyshallitgoandnofurther;thatthereforeitsextentmayincreaseforever，andbeproperlytermedindefiniteorunlimited。ButthefallacyandabsurdityofthisargumentwillsufficientlyappearfromaslightexaminationofwhatMrCondorcetcallstheorganicperfectibility，ordegeneration，oftheraceofplantsandanimals，whichhesaysmayberegardedasoneofthegenerallawsofnature。
Iamtoldthatitisamaximamongtheimproversofcattlethatyoumaybreedtoanydegreeofnicetyyouplease，andtheyfoundthismaximuponanother，whichisthatsomeoftheoffspringwillpossessthedesirablequalitiesoftheparentsinagreaterdegree。InthefamousLeicestershirebreedofsheep，theobjectistoprocurethemwithsmallheadsandsmalllegs。
Proceedinguponthesebreedingmaxims，itisevidentthatwemightgoontilltheheadsandlegswereevanescentquantities，butthisissopalpableanabsurditythatwemaybequitesurethatthepremisesarenotjustandthattherereallyisalimit，thoughwecannotseeitorsayexactlywhereitis。Inthiscase，thepointofthegreatestdegreeofimprovement，orthesmallestsizeoftheheadandlegs，maybesaidtobeundefined，butthisisverydifferentfromunlimited，orfromindefinite，inMrCondorcet’sacceptationoftheterm。ThoughImaynotbeableinthepresentinstancetomarkthelimitatwhichfurtherimprovementwillstop，Icanveryeasilymentionapointatwhichitwillnotarrive。Ishouldnotscrupletoassertthatwerethebreedingtocontinueforever，theheadandlegsofthesesheepwouldneverbesosmallastheheadandlegsofarat。
Itcannotbetrue，therefore，thatamonganimals，someoftheoffspringwillpossessthedesirablequalitiesoftheparentsinagreaterdegree，orthatanimalsareindefinitelyperfectible。
Theprogressofawildplanttoabeautifulgardenflowerisperhapsmoremarkedandstrikingthananythingthattakesplaceamonganimals，yetevenhereitwouldbetheheightofabsurditytoassertthattheprogresswasunlimitedorindefinite。
Oneofthemostobviousfeaturesoftheimprovementistheincreaseofsize。Theflowerhasgrowngraduallylargerbycultivation。Iftheprogresswerereallyunlimiteditmightbeincreasedadinfinitum，butthisissogrossanabsurditythatwemaybequitesurethatamongplantsaswellasamonganimalsthereisalimittoimprovement，thoughwedonotexactlyknowwhereitis。Itisprobablethatthegardenerswhocontendforflowerprizeshaveoftenappliedstrongerdressingwithoutsuccess。Atthesametimeitwouldbehighlypresumptuousinanymantosaythathehadseenthefinestcarnationoranemonethatcouldeverbemadetogrow。Hemighthoweverassertwithoutthesmallestchanceofbeingcontradictedbyafuturefact，thatnocarnationoranemonecouldeverbycultivationbeincreasedtothesizeofalargecabbage;andyetthereareassignablequantitiesmuchgreaterthanacabbage。Nomancansaythathehasseenthelargestearofwheat，orthelargestoakthatcouldevergrow;buthemighteasily，andwithperfectcertainty，nameapointofmagnitudeatwhichtheywouldnotarrive。Inallthesecasestherefore，acarefuldistinctionshouldbemade，betweenanunlimitedprogress，andaprogresswherethelimitismerelyundefined。
Itwillbesaid，perhaps，thatthereasonwhyplantsandanimalscannotincreaseindefinitelyinsizeis，thattheywouldfallbytheirownweight。Ianswer，howdoweknowthisbutfromexperience？——fromexperienceofthedegreeofstrengthwithwhichthesebodiesareformed。Iknowthatacarnation，longbeforeitreachedthesizeofacabbage，wouldnotbesupportedbyitsstalk，butIonlyknowthisfrommyexperienceoftheweaknessandwantoftenacityinthematerialsofacarnationstalk。Therearemanysubstancesinnatureofthesamesizethatwouldsupportaslargeaheadasacabbage。
Thereasonsofthemortalityofplantsareatpresentperfectlyunknowntous。Nomancansaywhysuchaplantisannual，anotherbiennial，andanotherenduresforages。Thewholeaffairinallthesecases，inplants，animals，andinthehumanrace，isanaffairofexperience，andIonlyconcludethatmanismortalbecausetheinvariableexperienceofallageshasprovedthemortalityofthosematerialsofwhichhisvisiblebodyismade：
Whatcanwereason，butfromwhatweknow？
Soundphilosophywillnotauthorizemetoalterthisopinionofthemortalityofmanonearth，tillitcanbeclearlyprovedthatthehumanracehasmade，andismaking，adecidedprogresstowardsanillimitableextentoflife。AndthechiefreasonwhyI
adducedthetwoparticularinstancesfromanimalsandplantswastoexposeandillustrate，ifIcould，thefallacyofthatargumentwhichinfersanunlimitedprogress，merelybecausesomepartialimprovementhastakenplace，andthatthelimitofthisimprovementcannotbepreciselyascertained。
Thecapacityofimprovementinplantsandanimals，toacertaindegree，nopersoncanpossiblydoubt。Aclearanddecidedprogresshasalreadybeenmade，andyet，Ithink，itappearsthatitwouldbehighlyabsurdtosaythatthisprogresshasnolimits。Inhumanlife，thoughtherearegreatvariationsfromdifferentcauses，itmaybedoubtedwhether，sincetheworldbegan，anyorganicimprovementwhateverinthehumanframecanbeclearlyascertained。Thefoundations，therefore，onwhichtheargumentsfortheorganicperfectibilityofmanrest，areunusuallyweak，andcanonlybeconsideredasmereconjectures。
Itdoesnot，however，byanymeansseemimpossiblethatbyanattentiontobreed，acertaindegreeofimprovement，similartothatamonganimals，mighttakeplaceamongmen。Whetherintellectcouldbecommunicatedmaybeamatterofdoubt：butsize，strength，beauty，complexion，andperhapsevenlongevityareinadegreetransmissible。Theerrordoesnotseemtolieinsupposingasmalldegreeofimprovementpossible，butinnotdiscriminatingbetweenasmallimprovement，thelimitofwhichisundefined，andanimprovementreallyunlimited。Asthehumanrace，however，couldnotbeimprovedinthisway，withoutcondemningallthebadspecimenstocelibacy，itisnotprobablethatanattentiontobreedshouldeverbecomegeneral;indeed，Iknowofnowell—directedattemptsofthiskind，exceptintheancientfamilyoftheBickerstaffs，whoaresaidtohavebeenverysuccessfulinwhiteningtheskinsandincreasingtheheightoftheirracebyprudentmarriages，particularlybythatveryjudiciouscrosswithMaud，themilk—maid，bywhichsomecapitaldefectsintheconstitutionsofthefamilywerecorrected。
Itwillnotbenecessary，Ithink，inordermorecompletelytoshewtheimprobabilityofanyapproachinmantowardsimmortalityonearth，tourgetheverygreatadditionalweightthatanincreaseinthedurationoflifewouldgivetotheargumentofpopulation。
Many，Idoubtnot，willthinkthattheattemptinggravelytocontrovertsoabsurdaparadoxastheimmortalityofmanonearth，orindeed，eventheperfectibilityofmanandsociety，isawasteoftimeandwords，andthatsuchunfoundedconjecturesarebestansweredbyneglect。Iprofess，however，tobeofadifferentopinion。Whenparadoxesofthiskindareadvancedbyingeniousandablemen，neglecthasnotendencytoconvincethemoftheirmistakes。Pridingthemselvesonwhattheyconceivetobeamarkofthereachandsizeoftheirownunderstandings，oftheextentandcomprehensivenessoftheirviews，theywilllookuponthisneglectmerelyasanindicationofpoverty，andnarrowness，inthementalexertionsoftheircontemporaries，andonlythinkthattheworldisnotyetpreparedtoreceivetheirsublimetruths。
Onthecontrary，acandidinvestigationofthesesubjects，accompaniedwithaperfectreadinesstoadoptanytheorywarrantedbysoundphilosophy，mayhaveatendencytoconvincethemthatinformingimprobableandunfoundedhypotheses，sofarfromenlargingtheboundsofhumanscience，theyarecontractingit，sofarfrompromotingtheimprovementofthehumanmind，theyareobstructingit;theyarethrowingusbackagainalmostintotheinfancyofknowledgeandweakeningthefoundationsofthatmodeofphilosophising，undertheauspicesofwhichsciencehasoflatemadesuchrapidadvances。Thepresentrageforwideandunrestrainedspeculationseemstobeakindofmentalintoxication，arising，perhaps，fromthegreatandunexpecteddiscoverieswhichhavebeenmadeoflateyears，invariousbranchesofscience。Tomenelateandgiddywithsuchsuccesses，everythingappearedtobewithinthegraspofhumanpowers;and，underthisillusion，theyconfoundedsubjectswherenorealprogresscouldbeprovedwiththosewheretheprogresshadbeenmarked，certain，andacknowledged。Couldtheybepersuadedtosoberthemselveswithalittlesevereandchastisedthinking，theywouldsee，thatthecauseoftruth，andofsoundphilosophy，cannotbutsufferbysubstitutingwildflightsandunsupportedassertionsforpatientinvestigation，andwellauthenticatedproofs。
MrCondorcet’sbookmaybeconsiderednotonlyasasketchoftheopinionsofacelebratedindividual，butofmanyoftheliterarymeninFranceatthebeginningoftheRevolution。Assuch，thoughmerelyasketch，itseemsworthyofattention。
CHAPTER10
MrGodwin’ssystemofequality—Errorofattributingallthevicesofmankindtohumaninstitutions—MrGodwin’sfirstanswertothedifficultyarisingfrompopulationtotallyinsufficient—
MrGodwin’sbeautifulsystemofequalitysupposedtoberealized—Inutterdestructionsimplyfromtheprincipleofpopulationinsoshortatimeasthirtyyears。
INreadingMrGodwin’singeniousandableworkonPoliticalJustice，itisimpossiblenottobestruckwiththespiritandenergyofhisstyle，theforceandprecisionofsomeofhisreasonings，theardenttoneofhisthoughts，andparticularlywiththatimpressiveearnestnessofmannerwhichgivesanairoftruthtothewhole。Atthesametime，itmustbeconfessedthathehasnotproceededinhisinquirieswiththecautionthatsoundphilosophyseemstorequire。Hisconclusionsareoftenunwarrantedbyhispremises。Hefailssometimesinremovingtheobjectionswhichhehimselfbringsforward。Hereliestoomuchongeneralandabstractpropositionswhichwillnotadmitofapplication。Andhisconjecturescertainlyfaroutstripthemodestyofnature。
ThesystemofequalitywhichMrGodwinproposesis，withoutdoubt，byfarthemostbeautifulandengagingofanythathasyetappeared。Anameliorationofsocietytobeproducedmerelybyreasonandconvictionwearsmuchmorethepromiseofpermanencethananychangeeffectedandmaintainedbyforce。Theunlimitedexerciseofprivatejudgementisadoctrineinexpressiblygrandandcaptivatingandhasavastsuperiorityoverthosesystemswhereeveryindividualisinamannertheslaveofthepublic。
Thesubstitutionofbenevolenceasthemaster—springandmovingprincipleofsociety，insteadofself—love，isaconsummationdevoutlytobewished。Inshort，itisimpossibletocontemplatethewholeofthisfairstructurewithoutemotionsofdelightandadmiration，accompaniedwithardentlongingfortheperiodofitsaccomplishment。But，alas！thatmomentcanneverarrive。Thewholeislittlebetterthanadream，abeautifulphantomoftheimagination。These’gorgeouspalaces’ofhappinessandimmortality，these’solemntemples’oftruthandvirtuewilldissolve，’likethebaselessfabricofavision’，whenweawakentoreallifeandcontemplatethetrueandgenuinesituationofmanonearth。MrGodwin，attheconclusionofthethirdchapterofhiseighthbook，speakingofpopulation，says：
Thereisaprincipleinhumansociety，bywhichpopulationisperpetuallykeptdowntothelevelofthemeansofsubsistence。
ThusamongthewanderingtribesofAmericaandAsia，weneverfindthroughthelapseofagesthatpopulationhassoincreasedastorendernecessarythecultivationoftheearth。
Thisprinciple，whichMrGodwinthusmentionsassomemysteriousandoccultcauseandwhichhedoesnotattempttoinvestigate，willbefoundtobethegrindinglawofnecessity，misery，andthefearofmisery。
ThegreaterrorunderwhichMrGodwinlaboursthroughouthiswholeworkistheattributingalmostallthevicesandmiserythatareseenincivilsocietytohumaninstitutions。Politicalregulationsandtheestablishedadministrationofpropertyarewithhimthefruitfulsourcesofallevil，thehotbedsofallthecrimesthatdegrademankind。Werethisreallyatruestateofthecase，itwouldnotseemahopelesstasktoremoveevilcompletelyfromtheworld，andreasonseemstobetheproperandadequateinstrumentforeffectingsogreatapurpose。Butthetruthis，thatthoughhumaninstitutionsappeartobetheobviousandobtrusivecausesofmuchmischieftomankind，yetinrealitytheyarelightandsuperficial，theyaremerefeathersthatfloatonthesurface，incomparisonwiththosedeeperseatedcausesofimpuritythatcorruptthespringsandrenderturbidthewholestreamofhumanlife。
MrGodwin，inhischapteronthebenefitsattendantonasystemofequality，says：
Thespiritofoppression，thespiritofservility，andthespiritoffraud，thesearetheimmediategrowthoftheestablishedadministrationofproperty。Theyarealikehostiletointellectualimprovement。Theothervicesofenvy，malice，andrevengearetheirinseparablecompanions。Inastateofsocietywheremenlivedinthemidstofplentyandwhereallsharedalikethebountiesofnature，thesesentimentswouldinevitablyexpire。
Thenarrowprincipleofselfishnesswouldvanish。Nomanbeingobligedtoguardhislittlestoreorprovidewithanxietyandpainforhisrestlesswants，eachwouldlosehisindividualexistenceinthethoughtofthegeneralgood。Nomanwouldbeanenemytohisneighbour，fortheywouldhavenosubjectofcontention，and，ofconsequence，philanthropywouldresumetheempirewhichreasonassignsher。Mindwouldbedeliveredfromherperpetualanxietyaboutcorporalsupport，andfreetoexpatiateinthefieldofthought，whichiscongenialtoher。Eachwouldassisttheinquiriesofall。
Thiswould，indeed，beahappystate。Butthatitismerelyanimaginarypicture，withscarcelyafeaturenearthetruth，thereader，Iamafraid，isalreadytoowellconvinced。
Mancannotliveinthemidstofplenty。Allcannotsharealikethebountiesofnature。Weretherenoestablishedadministrationofproperty，everymanwouldbeobligedtoguardwithforcehislittlestore。Selfishnesswouldbetriumphant。Thesubjectsofcontentionwouldbeperpetual。Everyindividualmindwouldbeunderaconstantanxietyaboutcorporalsupport，andnotasingleintellectwouldbeleftfreetoexpatiateinthefieldofthought。
HowlittleMrGodwinhasturnedtheattentionofhispenetratingmindtotherealstateofmanonearthwillsufficientlyappearfromthemannerinwhichheendeavourstoremovethedifficultyofanoverchargedpopulation。Hesays：
Theobviousanswertothisobjection，is，thattoreasonthusistoforeseedifficultiesatagreatdistance。Threefourthsofthehabitableglobeisnowuncultivated。Thepartsalreadycultivatedarecapableofimmeasurableimprovement。Myriadsofcenturiesofstillincreasingpopulationmaypassaway，andtheearthbestillfoundsufficientforthesubsistenceofitsinhabitants。
Ihavealreadypointedouttheerrorofsupposingthatnodistressanddifficultywouldarisefromanoverchargedpopulationbeforetheearthabsolutelyrefusedtoproduceanymore。ButletusimagineforamomentMrGodwin’sbeautifulsystemofequalityrealizedinitsutmostpurity，andseehowsoonthisdifficultymightbeexpectedtopressundersoperfectaformofsociety。Atheorythatwillnotadmitofapplicationcannotpossiblybejust。
Letussupposeallthecausesofmiseryandviceinthisislandremoved。Warandcontentioncease。Unwholesometradesandmanufactoriesdonotexist。Crowdsnolongercollecttogetheringreatandpestilentcitiesforpurposesofcourtintrigue，ofcommerce，andviciousgratifications。Simple，healthy，andrationalamusementstakeplaceofdrinking，gaming，anddebauchery。Therearenotownssufficientlylargetohaveanyprejudicialeffectsonthehumanconstitution。Thegreaterpartofthehappyinhabitantsofthisterrestrialparadiseliveinhamletsandfarmhousesscatteredoverthefaceofthecountry。
Everyhouseisclean，airy，sufficientlyroomy，andinahealthysituation。Allmenareequal。Thelaboursofluxuryareatend。
Andthenecessarylaboursofagriculturearesharedamicablyamongall。Thenumberofpersons，andtheproduceoftheisland，wesupposetobethesameasatpresent。Thespiritofbenevolence，guidedbyimpartialjustice，willdividethisproduceamongallthemembersofthesocietyaccordingtotheirwants。Thoughitwouldbeimpossiblethattheyshouldallhaveanimalfoodeveryday，yetvegetablefood，withmeatoccasionally，wouldsatisfythedesiresofafrugalpeopleandwouldbesufficienttopreservetheminhealth，strength，andspirits。
MrGodwinconsidersmarriageasafraudandamonopoly。Letussupposethecommerceofthesexesestablisheduponprinciplesofthemostperfectfreedom。MrGodwindoesnotthinkhimselfthatthisfreedomwouldleadtoapromiscuousintercourse，andinthisIperfectlyagreewithhim。Theloveofvarietyisavicious，corrupt，andunnaturaltasteandcouldnotprevailinanygreatdegreeinasimpleandvirtuousstateofsociety。Eachmanwouldprobablyselecthimselfapartner，towhomhewouldadhereaslongasthatadherencecontinuedtobethechoiceofbothparties。Itwouldbeoflittleconsequence，accordingtoMrGodwin，howmanychildrenawomanhadortowhomtheybelonged。
Provisionsandassistancewouldspontaneouslyflowfromthequarterinwhichtheyabounded，tothequarterthatwasdeficient。（SeeBkVIII，ch。8;inthethirdedition，VolII，p。
512）Andeverymanwouldbereadytofurnishinstructiontotherisinggenerationaccordingtohiscapacity。
Icannotconceiveaformofsocietysofavourableuponthewholetopopulation。Theirremediablenessofmarriage，asitisatpresentconstituted，undoubtedlydetersmanyfromenteringintothatstate。Anunshackledintercourseonthecontrarywouldbeamostpowerfulincitementtoearlyattachments，andaswearesupposingnoanxietyaboutthefuturesupportofchildrentoexist，Idonotconceivethattherewouldbeonewomaninahundred，oftwenty—three，withoutafamily。
Withtheseextraordinaryencouragementstopopulation，andeverycauseofdepopulation，aswehavesupposed，removed，thenumberswouldnecessarilyincreasefasterthaninanysocietythathaseveryetbeenknown。Ihavementioned，ontheauthorityofapamphletpublishedbyaDrStylesandreferredtobyDrPrice，thattheinhabitantsofthebacksettlementsofAmericadoubledtheirnumbersinfifteenyears。EnglandiscertainlyamorehealthycountrythanthebacksettlementsofAmerica，andaswehavesupposedeveryhouseintheislandtobeairyandwholesome，andtheencouragementstohaveafamilygreatereventhanwiththebacksettlers，noprobablereasoncanbeassignedwhythepopulationshouldnotdoubleitselfinless，ifpossible，thanfifteenyears。Buttobequitesurethatwedonotgobeyondthetruth，wewillonlysupposetheperiodofdoublingtobetwenty—fiveyears，aratioofincreasewhichiswellknowntohavetakenplacethroughoutalltheNorthernStatesofAmerica。
Therecanbelittledoubtthattheequalizationofpropertywhichwehavesupposed，addedtothecircumstanceofthelabourofthewholecommunitybeingdirectedchieflytoagriculture，wouldtendgreatlytoaugmenttheproduceofthecountry。Buttoanswerthedemandsofapopulationincreasingsorapidly，MrGodwin’scalculationofhalfanhouradayforeachmanwouldcertainlynotbesufficient。Itisprobablethatthehalfofeveryman’stimemustbeemployedforthispurpose。Yetwithsuch，ormuchgreaterexertions，apersonwhoisacquaintedwiththenatureofthesoilinthiscountry，andwhoreflectsonthefertilityofthelandsalreadyincultivation，andthebarrennessofthosethatarenotcultivated，willbeverymuchdisposedtodoubtwhetherthewholeaverageproducecouldpossiblybedoubledintwenty—fiveyearsfromthepresentperiod。Theonlychanceofsuccesswouldbetheploughingupallthegrazingcountriesandputtinganendalmostentirelytotheuseofanimalfood。Yetapartofthisschememightdefeatitself。ThesoilofEnglandwillnotproducemuchwithoutdressing，andcattleseemtobenecessarytomakethatspeciesofmanurewhichbestsuitstheland。InChinaitissaidthatthesoilinsomeoftheprovincesissofertileastoproducetwocropsofriceintheyearwithoutdressing。NoneofthelandsinEnglandwillanswertothisdescription。
Difficult，however，asitmightbetodoubletheaverageproduceoftheislandintwenty—fiveyears，letussupposeiteffected。Attheexpirationofthefirstperiodtherefore，thefood，thoughalmostentirelyvegetable，wouldbesufficienttosupportinhealththedoubledpopulationoffourteenmillions。
Duringthenextperiodofdoubling，wherewillthefoodbefoundtosatisfytheimportunatedemandsoftheincreasingnumbers？Whereisthefreshlandtoturnup？Whereisthedressingnecessarytoimprovethatwhichisalreadyincultivation？Thereisnopersonwiththesmallestknowledgeoflandbutwouldsaythatitwasimpossiblethattheaverageproduceofthecountrycouldbeincreasedduringthesecondtwenty—fiveyearsbyaquantityequaltowhatitatpresentyields。Yetwewillsupposethisincrease，howeverimprobable，totakeplace。Theexuberantstrengthoftheargumentallowsofalmostanyconcession。Evenwiththisconcession，however，therewouldbesevenmillionsattheexpirationofthesecondtermunprovidedfor。Aquantityoffoodequaltothefrugalsupportoftwenty—onemillions，wouldbetobedividedamongtwenty—eightmillions。
Alas！whatbecomesofthepicturewheremenlivedinthemidstofplenty，wherenomanwasobligedtoprovidewithanxietyandpainforhisrestlesswants，wherethenarrowprincipleofselfishnessdidnotexist，whereMindwasdeliveredfromherperpetualanxietyaboutcorporalsupportandfreetoexpatiateinthefieldofthoughtwhichiscongenialtoher。Thisbeautifulfabricofimaginationvanishesattheseveretouchoftruth。Thespiritofbenevolence，cherishedandinvigoratedbyplenty，isrepressedbythechillingbreathofwant。Thehatefulpassionsthathadvanishedreappear。Themightylawofself—preservationexpelsallthesofterandmoreexaltedemotionsofthesoul。Thetemptationstoevilaretoostrongforhumannaturetoresist。
Thecornispluckedbeforeitisripe，orsecretedinunfairproportions，andthewholeblacktrainofvicesthatbelongtofalsehoodareimmediatelygenerated。Provisionsnolongerflowinforthesupportofthemotherwithalargefamily。Thechildrenaresicklyfrominsufficientfood。Therosyflushofhealthgivesplacetothepallidcheekandholloweyeofmisery。Benevolence，yetlingeringinafewbosoms，makessomefaintexpiringstruggles，tillatlengthself—loveresumeshiswontedempireandlordsittriumphantovertheworld。
Nohumaninstitutionshereexisted，totheperversenessofwhichMrGodwinascribestheoriginalsinoftheworstmen。（BkVIII，ch。3;inthethirdedition，Vol。II，p。462）Nooppositionhadbeenproducedbythembetweenpublicandprivategood。Nomonopolyhadbeencreatedofthoseadvantageswhichreasondirectstobeleftincommon。Nomanhadbeengoadedtothebreachoforderbyunjustlaws。Benevolencehadestablishedherreigninallhearts：andyetinsoshortaperiodaswithinfiftyyears，violence，oppression，falsehood，misery，everyhatefulvice，andeveryformofdistress，whichdegradeandsaddenthepresentstateofsociety，seemtohavebeengeneratedbythemostimperiouscircumstances，bylawsinherentinthenatureofman，andabsolutelyindependentofithumanregulations。
Ifwearenotyettoowellconvincedoftherealityofthismelancholypicture，letusbutlookforamomentintothenextperiodoftwenty—fiveyears;andweshallseetwenty—eightmillionsofhumanbeingswithoutthemeansofsupport;andbeforetheconclusionofthefirstcentury，thepopulationwouldbeonehundredandtwelvemillions，andthefoodonlysufficientforthirty—fivemillions，leavingseventy—sevenmillionsunprovidedfor。Intheseageswantwouldbeindeedtriumphant，andrapineandmurdermustreignatlarge：andyetallthistimewearesupposingtheproduceoftheearthabsolutelyunlimited，andtheyearlyincreasegreaterthantheboldestspeculatorcanimagine。
ThisisundoubtedlyaverydifferentviewofthedifficultyarisingfrompopulationfromthatwhichMrGodwingives，whenhesays，’Myriadsofcenturiesofstillincreasingpopulationmaypassaway，andtheearthbestillfoundsufficientforthesubsistenceofitsinhabitants。’